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We don’t start with the return. We start with the evidence.

Follow one property from first look to final decision.

Illustrative impression of canal-side towers in Business Bay in early light, seen from a balcony
01

First, we establish what is actually true.

Verify the asset

We verify the property, its terms and the key details with original sources.

See what we verify
Asking price
USD 441 K (AED 1.62 M)
Developer price list, 22 Aug 2026
Layout and area
1 bed, 742 sq ft, mid floor
Sale agreement plan
Tenure
Freehold, one allocated parking space
Sale agreement
Stated handover
Q3 2028
Developer, 22 Aug 2026
Service charge
3.87 USD / sq ft (AED 14.20) per year
2026 budget of the delivered tower
Developer delivery record
First tower delivered within four months of its stated date
Handover notices, 2025

Evidence

  • Developer price list, 22 Aug 2026
  • Sale agreement plan
  • Sale agreement
  • Developer, 22 Aug 2026
  • 2026 budget of the delivered tower
  • Handover notices, 2025
Schematic plan of a one-bedroom apartmentA one-bedroom apartment drawn as a schematic: living room, bedroom, bathroom, kitchen and balcony inside one outline, an entrance door, and, beyond a dashed line, one allocated parking bay outside the apartment. Three numbered markers point at what the plan can show: the layout, the registered area and the parking; the numbers match the facts beside the drawing.
Schematic of a one-bedroom apartment, not the property’s own plan and not to scale. No dimensions are drawn.

JH-2588 · Illustrative sample

Marasi Riverside, Tower B

Business Bay · Off-plan

Unit size
742 sq ft
Unit type
1 bedroom
Asking price
USD 441 KAED 1.62 M
Handover
Q3 2028
02

We model the income and the net return.

Build the economics · Break the case

One consistent approach, so every opportunity can be compared like for like.

See full assumptions
Downside
4.3%
Rent
8% below the comparables
Void
Eight weeks a year
Exit yield
One point wider
Base
5.4%
Rent
As the comparables
Void
Four weeks a year
Exit yield
As today
Upside
6.0%
Rent
Not stated in this sample
Void
Not stated in this sample
Exit yield
Not stated in this sample

Evidence

  • Six comparable lettings in the delivered tower, last nine months
  • 2026 budget, delivered tower
Rental income to net income, annual, in dirhams
  1. AED 112,700Market rent
  2. (8,669)Void allowanceFour weeks a year
  3. (10,536)Service charge742 sq ft
  4. (5,635)Management fee5% of rent
  5. AED 87,860Net income

5.4%Net yield · base case

The service charge is what makes the income work.

Downside
4.3%
Base case
5.4%
Upside
6.0%

The upside is not evidenced in this sample.

AED 87,860 · 5.4% of the asking price, base case

03

What could make us wrong?

Read the market · Name what can go wrong · Grade the evidence

We stress-test the risks that could change the case.

Evidence

  • DLD transaction records for the community
  • The developer's price list, plan and handover notices
  • SupplyOpen questionAbout 1,900 units completing in Business Bay in 2027 and 2028, in the same segment
    What could happen?
    Rent below the comparables and a slower first letting; the downside case.
    What remains unresolved?
    Whether absorption holds its recent pace through the first wave.
  • DeliveryMitigationA slip past the stated quarter
    What could happen?
    The first rent a year later while the payment plan continues.
    What reduces the risk?
    Handover terms in the sale agreement, and the developer's record on the last two towers.
  • Service chargeMitigationA budget a fifth above the delivered tower
    What could happen?
    About one point off the net yield.
    What reduces the risk?
    Modelled on the delivered tower's budget, not the estimate; to be confirmed at handover.
Business Bay supply and this tower
  1. 2022First tower in the community delivered
  2. 2025Second tower delivered, four months late, let within a quarter
  3. 2027 to 2028About 1,900 units scheduled to complete in Business Bay
  4. Q3 2028Stated handover for this tower
See market evidence

Two towers delivered in the community by this developer since 2022, both let within a quarter of handover. Roughly 1,900 units are scheduled to complete in Business Bay across 2027 and 2028, which is more than the last two years combined; absorption over the last twelve months ran ahead of that pace, but not by much.

The property may work. The timing may not.

Data confidence

Moderate

LimitedModerateHigh

Enough to model on. Not enough to be sure of.

What keeps this from High?

What is missing

  • Six lettings is enough to model on and not enough to be sure of
  • No service-charge budget exists yet for this tower
  • The upside case is not evidenced in this sample

What would move it to High

  • A further quarter of lettings in the delivered tower
  • The developer's own budget for this tower

The sources

  • Six comparable lettings in the delivered tower
  • DLD transaction records for the community
  • The developer's price list, plan and handover notices
  • The delivered tower's 2026 service-charge budget

All lettings within the last nine months; transactions to 31 August 2026

04

For rental income at this price, we would proceed.

The comparables are recent and in the same building, the charge is taken from a delivered budget, and the downside case still clears four per cent net.

See the full investment memo
Data confidence
LimitedModerateHigh
Scope
Rental income
Not for
Capital appreciation

The 2027 supply caps the exit for the first two years.

SignedMansoor Charaniya

See it all in context.

The investment memo holds the full evidence behind this page, and the signed view.

Explore the sample memoDownload memo

A consistent process. A clearer decision.

Seven checks for every opportunity, from the facts and the economics to the risks, the evidence and a signed view.

  1. 01Verify the asset
  2. 02Build the economics
  3. 03Read the market
  4. 04Break the case
  5. 05Name what can go wrong
  6. 06Grade the evidence
  7. 07Sign the view
Explore the full framework

  1. 01 Property facts

    Title, area, layout, service charge, developer record.

    What we look at

    • The title deed or sale agreement, the registered area and the plan, read against the listing.
    • The service charge as budgeted for a delivered building, not the estimate in a brochure.
    • The stated handover date beside the developer's record on its last two projects.

  2. 02 Financial analysis

    Net yield from comparable lettings, costs taken out.

    What we look at

    • Comparable lettings in the same building or community, dated, with their sizes and rents.
    • A void allowance and the service charge deducted before anything is called a net yield.
    • Every figure shown with the date or basis it was produced on.

  3. 03 Developer and market

    Delivery record, current supply, what is coming.

    What we look at

    • What the developer delivered, when, and how far from the stated date.
    • Units scheduled to complete in the community over the next two years, from published launch data.
    • Absorption over the last twelve months, from transaction records.

  4. 04 Scenario testing

    Downside, base and upside, moved together.

    What we look at

    • Three cases, with the assumptions behind each written out rather than left in a model.
    • Rent, void and exit yield moved together, because in a soft market they move together.
    • The downside built from a specific event, usually the next delivery wave, not a round number.

  5. 05 Risk assessment

    The two or three things that could go wrong.

    What we look at

    • Each risk with its likely effect on income or exit, in figures where the figures exist.
    • What would reduce it, or the question that stays open, stated as such.
    • No score. A named risk is more useful than a number nobody can trace.

  6. 06 Data confidence

    How well evidenced every figure is.

    What we look at

    • The sources behind the figures, how many, and how recent.
    • What the evidence cannot tell us yet, written down.
    • A word, limited, moderate or high, and what would move it up.

  7. 07 Management review

    A person signs the view.

    What we look at

    • The concluding assessment, with the reasoning in one paragraph a reader can repeat.
    • The conditions under which the view holds, and the objectives it does not serve.
    • A name and a date on it.